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USDA’s Coffee Production Forecast 2022/23 Revision and the rise of coffee prices

29 November 2022

USDA’s Coffee Production Forecast 2022/23 Revision and the rise of coffee prices.

Following the USDA’s 2022/23 coffee production and export estimates revision for Brazil and Colombia, Arabica coffee futures ended at 166 cents per pound for March delivery contracts. This saw a 2.1% increment from a prior week of 154 cents/lb, which is expected to stimulate imports of arabica coffee.

USDA's Tuesday (November 22, 2022) report indicated that the Brazilian coffee production for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 (July-June) was revised to 62.6 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 1.7 million bags compared to the previous estimate, and, as a result, lower output in Arabica production. 2022/23 Brazil’s exports are estimated to be 36.65 million bags, down 2.4 million bags from the previous estimates.

Colombia's production estimates have been revised to 12.7 million bags, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate of 13 million bags, according to USDA estimates.

Forecasts for Ethiopia (the 3rd largest Arabica producer) remained at 8.25 million 60-kilogram bags (495,000 MT), while export figures are expected to reach 4.72 million bags (280,560 MT), compared to exports in FY2021/22, which reached 4.70 million bags (282,000 MT).

European dietitians are adding to the health benefits of coffee.

The latest report from the European Federation of Associations of Dietitians (EFAD) confirms that moderate coffee consumption has health benefits. 62% of the surveyed dietitians agreed that coffee improves mental and physical performance, with 86% agreeing on improved alertness, 61% agreeing on enhanced mood, 69% agreeing on improved overall sports performance, and 51% agreeing on coffee's benefits earlier in exercise. It is to be remembered that earlier in September, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) released its findings on the positive impacts of coffee on lowering the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Colombia's and Brazil's coffee production forecasts for 2022/23 have been revised downward.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, Colombia’s weather changes (increased rainfall and cloudiness) could shrink production in 2022/23 by 9.2%. USDA’s November report indicated a 4.09% contraction in Brazil’s 2022/23 Arabica production versus previous estimates (June 2022).

It is to be remembered that the USDA reported Ethiopia’s 2022–23 marketing year would see an additional 100,000 bags of Arabica versus 8.15 million bags of production in the 2020–21 marketing year.

The Uganda Coffee Development Authority reported a revenue increase.

Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) reported a 35% revenue increment, reaching US $888.24 million compared to 2020/21 revenues, despite an 11% decrease in volumes.



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