In November 2021, coffee prices reached new multi-year(10 years) increases, as the ICO’s monthly average price reached $1.95 /Ib. an increase of 7.5 % as compared to $1.81/Ib. in October 2021.
The ICO says price levels during the coffee year 2021/22 mark a significant and steady recovery from the low levels experienced over the 4 preceding coffee years. Since November 2020, where the ICO Composite Indicator was priced at $1.09/Ib. an increase of 77.9 % has been recorded. Moreover, the ICO says the average price of November 2021 is the highest it has been in a decade, since reaching 1.93/Ib. in October 2011. The ICO says the steady upward trend observed since the start of the coffee year 2020/21 shows how the recovery of coffee prices, after 4 consecutive years of low-price levels, reflects a dramatic change in overall market conditions.
Estimates of total production for the coffee year 2020/21 remain unchanged at 169.64 MM 60-kilogram bags. On the other hand, world coffee consumption is assessed marginally up in volume, now estimated to have increased to 167.67 MM bags in 2020/21 as compared to 164.53 MM bags for the coffee year 2019/20. The ICO says the gap in production consumption is therefore reducing to 1.97 MM bags. Exports of all forms of coffee in October 2021 totaled 9.68 MM bags, down 4.4 % as compared to 10.13 MM bags in October 2020. In terms of regional performance during the first month of the coffee year 2021/22, Africa recorded an increase in export by 5.1 % to 1.1MM bags in October 2021 as compared to 1.0 MM bags in October 2020 whereas exports of South America decreased by 20.6 % to 4.94 MM bags as compared to 6.22 MM bags in October 2020/21.
On a national note, it is to be recalled Ethiopia exported a record 248,000 mt in 2020/21 FY & is heading to 280,000mt in 2021/22 FY. Export prices have seen a 35% increment from $1.25/Ib. to $1.81/Ib. in 20/21 compared to the 2019/20 coffee year. We have good news as more & quality coffee is expected in the coming 3 years from the 300,000 hectares of land, following replacement of old coffee trees & the progress in the growth the new ones.
