Will May see more coffee leaving the port of Djibouti?
The midpoint of April seems like a good time for stimulating the green coffee trade from Ethiopia's import-destination market. New York exchange prices saw an approximate 20 US cents/Ib. addition compared to the prior weeks, enticed by increased offers from Ethiopian exporters.
In previous years, March has been a critical month in marking the first shipments of natural coffee from the new harvest, but for this year, it seems things are pushed to get ignited at the end of April and a compensating May.
On other important origins, according to the latest reports by the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), Uganda’s January 2023 arabica supplies have decreased by 5.75% to 81,944 bags compared to the same period of the prior year. Colombia, the world's largest producer of mild-washed Arabica, produced 799,000 bags in March 2023, 13% less than in the same period in 2022. The volume decrement is also shared by Brazil, the largest producer of arabica and robusta coffee beans, which saw its March 2023 exports down by 19.4% to 2,781,281 bags, arabica amounting to a significant 2,674,014 bags (down by 19.3%). Brazil’s 2023 first-quarter Arabica and Robusta exports fell by 24.2% and 28.7%, respectively, to 7,166,544 and 270,486 bags. On top of this, Brazil’s 2023 first-quarter coffee exports to the US, Germany, and Italy were down by 26.59%, 44.10%, and 31.05%, respectively, with the US, Germany, and Italy being the 1st, 4th, and 9th-ranked importers of Ethiopian coffee.
With New York prices expected to rise and remain above the $2/Ib. mark, the cumulative decline in exports of other Brazilian natural coffees will be some of the supporting factors in seeing an increase in Ethiopia's export offers and a rise in the number of shipments.
